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The Land Mine and the Collapse of a Trump-Brokered Peace in Southeast Asia

Monday, 10 November 2025 14:40

Summary

A fragile peace accord between Thailand and Cambodia, brokered by US President Donald Trump and signed in October 2025, was abruptly suspended by Bangkok following a land mine explosion that injured two Thai soldiers on the border. The incident, which occurred in Thailand's Sisaket province, immediately imperilled the joint declaration that was intended to end the deadliest border clashes in years. The suspension halted key confidence-building measures, including the planned release of 18 detained Cambodian soldiers and joint demining operations. The collapse of the agreement underscores the enduring volatility of the century-old territorial dispute, which is rooted in colonial-era boundary ambiguities and has repeatedly flared into violence over the Preah Vihear temple and surrounding areas. The diplomatic setback also casts a shadow over the US administration's efforts to position itself as a global peacemaker in the region.

The Sudden Halt to De-escalation

On 10 November 2025, the fragile diplomatic architecture constructed to end the latest round of conflict between Thailand and Cambodia was brought to a sudden halt. The Thai government announced the suspension of the implementation of a peace agreement with its neighbour after a land mine explosion injured two Thai soldiers on patrol near the border. The incident took place in Thailand’s Sisaket province. According to a statement from the Royal Thai Army, one soldier sustained a severe leg injury, while the other suffered chest pains from the blast pressure. Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul stated that the explosion demonstrated that the security threat had not, in fact, decreased as his government had hoped. Government spokesman Siripong Angkasakulkiat confirmed that Bangkok would cease the “follow-up to the joint declaration,” which had been in effect for approximately a week. The suspension immediately halted a key provision of the accord: the planned release of 18 Cambodian soldiers who had been detained in Thailand since late July. That release had been scheduled to begin on 21 November. The Thai army suspects the soldiers stepped on newly laid mines, though this accusation has been denied by Cambodia in the past. The blast was the seventh such land mine incident in four months, following a wave of explosions in July that had precipitated the deadliest border clashes in years. In response to the suspension, Cambodia’s defence ministry issued a statement pledging an “unwavering commitment” to peace.

The Kuala Lumpur Accord and the American Broker

The peace agreement, formally a joint declaration, was signed in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in late October 2025, on the sidelines of the 47th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit. The accord was a direct response to a five-day military confrontation in July 2025 that resulted in at least 43 deaths and the displacement of more than 300,000 civilians on both sides of the border. The diplomatic push for a resolution was notably overseen by US President Donald Trump, who was on an Asia tour at the time. The US President had helped broker the end of the conflict, reportedly telling the leaders of both nations that they risked putting their respective trade talks with the United States on hold if hostilities did not cease. Mr Trump, who has publicly touted himself as a global peacemaker during his second term, stated that the US would have “robust commerce and cooperation” with both nations, provided they lived in peace. His involvement, alongside the mediation efforts of Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who was chairing ASEAN, was seen as a decisive factor in preventing further escalation. The expanded ceasefire deal, which Thailand refused to call a peace deal, outlined several key de-escalation measures. These included the removal of heavy weapons from the border area between 1 November and 31 December, cooperation on land mine clearance, and the release of the 18 Cambodian soldiers. The agreement also called for the establishment of a temporary monitoring mission by the ASEAN bloc. The Cambodian Prime Minister, Hun Manet, had even nominated Mr Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, praising his “extraordinary statesmanship” following the signing. The suspension of the accord, barely two weeks after its signing, represents a significant diplomatic failure for all parties involved, particularly the US administration that had invested considerable political capital in the process.

A Century of Undemarcated Conflict

The underlying cause of the recurring violence is a century-old territorial dispute over the 817-kilometre border, which has never been fully and jointly demarcated. The dispute has its origins in the Franco-Siamese treaties of 1904 and 1907, which defined the frontier between the Kingdom of Siam, now Thailand, and French Indochina, which included Cambodia. French surveyors produced maps that, in certain areas, deviated from the agreed-upon watershed line of the Dangrek Mountains, leading to overlapping claims. The most prominent flashpoint has always been the Preah Vihear temple, an 11th-century Khmer temple complex situated on a cliff. Following Cambodia’s independence from France in 1953, Thailand occupied the temple, prompting Cambodia to take the case to the International Court of Justice (ICJ). In 1962, the ICJ ruled that the temple itself was situated on Cambodian territory. However, the court did not clearly delineate the surrounding territory, leaving the adjacent highlands and approaches in a state of legal and military uncertainty. This ambiguity created a disputed area of approximately 4.6 square kilometres, which Thailand claims and Cambodia considers an integral part of its territory. The issue remained largely dormant for decades as Cambodia endured civil war and political turmoil. The conflict erupted into open violence again in 2008 after Cambodia successfully nominated the temple as a UNESCO World Heritage Site, a move Thailand unsuccessfully protested. Deadly skirmishes continued between 2008 and 2011, with both sides accusing the other of initiating confrontations and laying new land mines. The 2025 conflict, which began with a skirmish in the Emerald Triangle area in May and escalated into the deadly July clashes, represented the worst fighting since the dispute began. The fundamental points of contention, including the precise border delineation, were not resolved by the Kuala Lumpur accord, which focused instead on immediate de-escalation and confidence-building.

The Transactional Nature of Peace

The suspension of the peace process highlights the deep-seated mistrust that persists between the two nations, a factor that has historically been exacerbated by domestic political instability in Thailand. The Thai Prime Minister’s decision to halt the accord, citing the continued security threat, reflects the political pressure to maintain a hard line on border sovereignty. The Thai army’s suspicion that the land mine was newly planted, an accusation Cambodia denies, points to the difficulty of implementing disarmament and demining measures in a highly contested zone. The peace deal itself was a product of transactional diplomacy, with the US President leveraging the threat of high reciprocal tariffs on Thai goods to push for a resolution. The US had previously levied a 19 per cent tariff on Thai goods, which was reduced after Thailand made trade concessions. The US administration’s foreign policy, characterised by an “America First” strategy, sought to consolidate US interests while positioning itself as a mediator. However, the US was not seen as entirely neutral, with some analysis suggesting Washington appeared to lean towards Cambodia, possibly due to frustrations with Thailand’s increased tilt toward China. The failure of the accord to survive a single land mine incident demonstrates that external pressure, even from a global power, cannot easily overcome a century of unresolved territorial and historical grievances. The immediate consequence of the suspension is the renewed risk of military escalation, with the border remaining heavily militarised and the core issues of sovereignty and demarcation still unaddressed. The Thai government has lodged a complaint with the observer team organised by ASEAN, indicating a shift back toward regional diplomatic channels, but the future of the US-backed peace initiative remains uncertain.

Conclusion

The suspension of the Thailand-Cambodia peace accord on 10 November 2025, triggered by a land mine explosion, serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of externally brokered peace when fundamental territorial disputes remain unresolved. The Kuala Lumpur agreement, signed with the high-profile involvement of US President Donald Trump, was a temporary measure focused on de-escalation, not a final settlement of the border’s ambiguous lines. The immediate halt to the release of the 18 detained Cambodian soldiers and the cessation of joint demining efforts have effectively frozen the confidence-building process. The incident has exposed the deep-seated mistrust between the Royal Thai Army and the Cambodian military, a suspicion that a newly planted mine was intended to undermine the truce. As the two nations revert to a state of heightened alert along their shared, undemarcated frontier, the prospect of renewed, large-scale conflict looms over Southeast Asia. The diplomatic focus now shifts back to ASEAN and the observer team, but without a genuine commitment from both Bangkok and Phnom Penh to resolve the colonial-era boundary issues, the peace will remain perpetually vulnerable to the next incident on the contested ground.

References

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